Aviation could consume up to one-sixth of the remaining 1.5C temperature budget, warn scientists

Pre-pandemic, aviation was responsible for nearly one gigaton of CO2 emissions annually, around 2.4% of the global total, although through its additional non-CO2 impacts it contributes around 4% to human-induced global warming, a share that is increasing. A paper published in Environmental Research Letters suggests emissions produced by the aviation industry must be reduced each year if they are not to increase warming further, otherwise the sector could consume up to one-sixth of the remaining budget to limit warming to 1.5°C by 2050. The UK researchers behind the study developed a simple technique for quantifying the temperature contribution of historical aviation emissions, including both CO2 and non-CO2 impacts. They then modelled a number of potential post-Covid industry recovery scenarios and their climate impacts through to 2050, together with the potential effects of the industry scaling up the use of low-carbon fuels. The authors show that the only way to ‘freeze’ the temperature increase from the sector is to decline emissions by about 2.5% per year. However, they found a 90% mix of carbon neutral fuels by 2050 could achieve a similar outcome, with no further temperature increase from the sector. [...]