Carbon emissions from international aviation could treble by 2045 and fuel efficiency goal missed, says ICAO

With an anticipated increase of 3.3 times growth in international air traffic during the period 2015-2045, ICAO projects fuel consumption and carbon emissions will increase by 2.2 to 3.1 times, depending on advances in technology and air traffic management (ATM). International aviation consumed approximately 160 million tonnes (Mt) of fuel in 2015, resulting in CO2 emissions of around 505 Mt. By 2045, if the scenarios were followed, carbon emissions from international flights could rise to between 1,110 Mt and 1,570 Mt. Even under the most optimistic scenario, ICAO’s projected long-term average fuel efficiency improvement of 1.37% per annum falls short of its aspirational goal of 2%. On aircraft noise, the area around airports exposed to yearly average day-night noise levels above 55 dB is likely to remain the same or grow up to 2.2 times during the 2015-2045 period. These global trends, which also include aircraft NOx emission projections, are to help inform environmental discussions at the ICAO 40th Assembly starting in September.[...]

GreenAir Online

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