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COMMENTARY: The global governance of aviation’s emissions – time to revisit the ICAO/UNFCCC relationship

05/04/2021



In 1997, the UNFCCC’s COP3 decided, via the Kyoto Protocol, to treat international aviation indirectly through ICAO. CO2 emissions from international aviation have since doubled from 317Mt in 1997 to 641Mt in 2019, to match the total emissions of the 129 lowest emitting countries combined, ranking just behind Canada and at least one and half times those of the UK. Climate Action Tracker, which has been assessing the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) of individual countries under the Paris Agreement, last year turned its attention to international aviation emissions. It concluded that current measures, and notably ICAO’s CORSIA carbon offsetting scheme, were “critically insufficient” – the worst level – and compatible with a 4°C+ world. Therefore, suggests Chris Lyle, that with the opportunity of the Covid-induced delay in the effectiveness of CORSIA and the upcoming COP26, it is time to revisit the ICAO/UNFCCC relationship.
 
 
It is currently unclear when international air traffic will return to pre-Covid 2019 levels and whether subsequent growth rates will be lower than in the past, but it remains a likely scenario that without markedly more effective climate policies, damaging emissions from air transport will at least double 2019 levels by 2050. If aviation is to make its requisite contribution to the Paris Agreement targets, its CO2 emissions would have to be reduced by 2030 to half 2019 levels and by 2050 to zero (not ‘net’ zero, which includes out-of-sector carbon offsetting, capture and storage). [...]

GreenAir Online

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