Achieving the EU’s 2030 climate goal for aviation will rely heavily on market-based measures, says Eurocontrol

As part of the climate neutral by 2050 binding target of the European Green Deal, the EU has set an interim goal of cutting emissions by at least 55% by 2030, based on 1990 levels, and is working on a set of proposals under the ‘Fit for 55’ package to revise and update EU legislation, and put in place new initiatives to ensure EU polices are line with the climate goals. The package has important implications for aviation, and pan-European air navigation organisation Eurocontrol has released an assessment of what it means in practical terms and the extra costs of decarbonisation measures to meet the 2030 target. In a ‘Think Paper’, its analysis shows a 55% reduction is achievable, even under a strong recovery in traffic, but is heavily reliant on market-based measures, mainly via the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), which it forecasts will make an 83% contribution to the net reduction. Eurocontrol estimates that a combination of additional emissions trading costs, taxes on kerosene and extra costs from a sustainable aviation fuel mandate will result in additional cumulative costs to the aviation industry of €62 billion ($65bn) over the period 2022-2030, although positive measures could reduce this extra cost by €33 billion ($35bn). [...]